Archive for June, 2009
Forex Trading Through the Ages
Trading between individuals has been there for as long as man’s presence on earth and developed from bartering goods. This way of expressing the value of goods in the terms of other goods set the base for a marketplace in which people needed a better way to express the value of any item. Thus, the bartering of goods and buying and selling with such things as teeth, pretty stones and feathers gave way to dealing with metals, particularly silver and gold. It became the accepted method of payment and a rather reliable way of measuring storage of value.
Each country minted their own coins out of the metal of their preference and as countries began to have better and stable political establishments the introduction of paper currency was introduced during the Middle Ages and sometimes even before that in certain regions of the world. And so began the journey of modern currency.
Prior to World War I, the central banks of most countries used gold to support their currencies. In theory paper money had the ability to be converted to gold although it was not done often. Sometimes countries had ballooning supplies of paper currency even though they lacked the necessary gold cover and this resulted in overwhelming inflation and so on to political instability. Increasingly, foreign exchange controls were introduced in a bid to stem the market forces from being impacted negatively by monetary irresponsibility.
Towards the end of the Second World War in 1944, the Bretton Woods agreement was initiated by USA where the suggestion of John Maynard Keynes for a world reserve currency gave way to a system built with the US dollar as the base. The Bretton Woods agreement brought about a system consisting of fixed exchange rates partly displacing the gold standard and setting the USD 35/oz as the intended permanent standard of evaluating currencies. This was also not a practical way to reach an acceptable system and collapsed during the seventies with the suspension of gold convertibility and the dollar had to relinquish its place as the sole international currency as it came under pressure from growing trade and budget deficits.
During the decades that followed foreign exchange trading grew to be the biggest ever market with a global presence. Many countries have lifted restrictions with regard to capital flow and this has resulted in foreign exchange rates adjusting according to their perceived values. Devaluation of many currencies around the world against the US dollar had made them vulnerable.
This volatile environment in currency exchange opened up a new playground for investors and financial institutions in the way of the Forex market as we know it today. It has gained huge proportions as a global market with trading of nearly three trillion dollars worth of foreign exchange each day and is far ahead of the world’s combined stock and bonds markets.
Making Money in the Foreign Exchange Market
The dynamic and exciting trade in buying and selling currency is done in the international exchange market or Forex as it is usually referred to. It has been around for many long years although it’s most recent form came into being during the 1970s with the advent of floating currencies and the free exchange rates.
Making money has become a possibility for the masses in the Forex market of today with the opportunity to trade real currency can be done even with a few hundred dollars. All you need to trade currency online is a personal computer and the basic knowledge of trading Forex online. It is a truly global market that allows people to trade throughout the day or night all week. As one market closes for the day another across the globe will be opening for business and this is ideal for people with busy schedules who can now enter the Forex market even at night.
Making money in the Forex market is not exactly easy, but at the same time it must be said that if a person indulges in currency trading with at least the minimum amount of knowledge about what he is doing he will definitely make a profit. As you can see, making money is not something elusive to a persevering trader. It is Imperative that you learn the basic rules regarding the currency trade and how it works in order to make a profit. Before making money through currency trading online it is best to practice with a dummy account that can easily be found online.
Learning about the Forex market will take time and it is best to go slow till you are sure about how the Forex market works. In addition studying about the Forex market and its history will also help to understand the true nature of the business of foreign exchange. Having a strategy or a plan of action that you can take is also one way of trading currency. Actually, most people regard this to be the best way to making money through the trading of currency online. Strategies such as the fundamental analysis or the technical analysis can be used to evaluate the market and the risk that you are taking. All traders have their fair share of losses as they start out and it is minimizing this type of occasional losses that will make you profitable. Getting help at any time needed will ensure that you are making the right decision.
Making Money in the Foreign Exchange Market
The dynamic and exciting trade in buying and selling currency is done in the international exchange market or Forex as it is usually referred to. It has been around for many long years although it’s most recent form came into being during the 1970s with the advent of floating currencies and the free exchange rates.
Making money has become a possibility for the masses in the Forex market of today with the opportunity to trade real currency can be done even with a few hundred dollars. All you need to trade currency online is a personal computer and the basic knowledge of trading Forex online. It is a truly global market that allows people to trade throughout the day or night all week. As one market closes for the day another across the globe will be opening for business and this is ideal for people with busy schedules who can now enter the Forex market even at night.
Making money in the Forex market is not exactly easy, but at the same time it must be said that if a person indulges in currency trading with at least the minimum amount of knowledge about what he is doing he will definitely make a profit. As you can see, making money is not something elusive to a persevering trader. It is Imperative that you learn the basic rules regarding the currency trade and how it works in order to make a profit. Before making money through currency trading online it is best to practice with a dummy account that can easily be found online.
Learning about the Forex market will take time and it is best to go slow till you are sure about how the Forex market works. In addition studying about the Forex market and its history will also help to understand the true nature of the business of foreign exchange. Having a strategy or a plan of action that you can take is also one way of trading currency. Actually, most people regard this to be the best way to making money through the trading of currency online. Strategies such as the fundamental analysis or the technical analysis can be used to evaluate the market and the risk that you are taking. All traders have their fair share of losses as they start out and it is minimizing this type of occasional losses that will make you profitable. Getting help at any time needed will ensure that you are making the right decision.
The Use of Statistics in Trading Currency Online
One major factor that affects foreign exchange trends is a country’s import and export trade balance. The level of trade balances and any changes in the import and export trade is widely studied by Forex traders in order to get a clearer picture as to the strength of that country’s currency. These changes are followed avidly by those who study the fundamental analysis in order to make decisions regarding the trade in real currency. While trade balance is the major indicator of foreign exchange trends there are numerous other indicators which help to give the true path of a country’s currency such as the ones listed below.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The Gross Domestic Product or GDP as it is widely known is probably the broadest gauge of the total economic activity that is reported quarterly. A country’s production during the given quarter is represented by its GDP value. The quarterly reviews are subject to volatility and revisions can be often seen. Therefore, it is best to view the GDP annually in order to determine the strength of the economy and the currency.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The Consumer Price Index or CPI will show the average price levels for a fixed basket of goods and services which are purchased by consumers. The CPI is reported on a monthly basis and is considered as a good guide to inflation levels. But one thing that should be remembered is that the prices of food and energy are excluded as they are considered to be too volatile.
Producer Price Index
The Producer Price Index or PPI measures the average of the prices pertaining to a fixed basket of goods received by producers in primary markets. The monthly report indicates any commodity inflation and is used as a guide to the price changes in manufacturing. Here again, the food and energy sectors are not counted.
Payroll Employment
This is one primary monthly indicator that gives the number of people in employment under non-farm business establishments and the government.
Durable Goods Orders
This is an indicator of the new orders placed for factory hard goods with domestic manufactures and is a useful guide to the economic activity of a country.
Retail Sales
The measure of retail sales taken as a monthly percentage is a good guide to the consumer spending of a country. Generally, the retail sales are taken into account with the exclusion of the auto retail sales as it could be too volatile.
Housing Starts
Housing starts are a measure of the units of housing that has been started during the month under consideration and is considered to show how healthy the construction sector is in the country.
The Basics Governing the Forex Trade
The Forex market is the biggest market in the world with a three trillion dollar turnover and towers over all the other stocks and bonds markets combined. The Forex market is also popular for more reasons than one. Apart from being a market with high liquidity it also has a high level of leverage and low dealing costs in currency trading online. Even though it was dominated by big players such as funds, governments, banks and brokers it has opened its doors to small time players who are able to participate through online currency trading.
Forex market and margin trading
Trading currency online is based upon margin trading. If a broker needs 1% margin deposit that means you need to place a deposit that is only 1% of the total amount that you want to trade on the Forex market. If you want to trade one million dollars in the currency market all you need to deposit is $10,000 as security. As you can see, the profits here can be substantial as well as the losses. For example, a simple change of a mere 2% would mean that the profit or loss accrued to you will be 200%. So, care should be taken to understand the true nature of the trading done and then trade with only the amount that you can afford to lose.
Variable currency and base currency
Currencies are always traded in pairs. You will be buying one currency and selling another. It could be USD/GBP, GBP/JPY or any other combination of currencies. The two aspects of a currency trade is the long side or where you buy currency and the short side or where you sell currency. This means you are actually speculating on the possibility of one currency gaining in strength against the other.
The dealing spread
In the Forex market when currency trading takes place each trade is quoted a buying price and a selling price. This or rather the difference between these two prices is the amount of the spread. All you have to do is to accept the price and it will be then confirmed by the dealer thus concluding the sale. There are no other delays or a need to call the exchange floor. This is actually advantage in a market that is fast and on the move. Trading currency online has another advantage and that is the ability to view the market and the trading done.
The Benefits of Automated Forex Trading
The numbers who are engaged in the trade of real currency are increasing with the popularity of trading currency online. In fact, Forex trading is in the forefront with a market that is huge and is still growing. In the last twenty years alone it has grown from a $500 billion to $2 trillion. It is the largest market on earth and is extremely liquid while at the same time having the advantage of not being tied down to any one trading floor. It operates around the clock and across the globe bringing us the further advantage of being able to participate in it at any time of our choice.
The people who use the Forex market and trade real currency online are attracted to it for a variety of reasons. All these people use a wide range of tools to help them trade currency online based upon the different factors that impact the Forex trade. Today, the popularity of currency trading online has grown due to the automation of the entire process which has brought with it many advantages.
What automation has done effectively is to enable currency trading to be conducted in real time from practically anywhere in the world. Automation is one way to remove the losses from trading Forex with manual systems. Many traders in the Forex market have gone through the frustration of making repeated losses due to the time delay in trading and this is the answer to their problems.
Automated currency trading also has another added advantage. Traders are able to trade in different currency markets at the same time without having to bother about time zones. This process has made the markets that exist all over the globe to be almost appearing as one stage giving the traders the ability to trade in multiple markets with ease.
This is a great way to synchronize payments in real time and thus effectively iron out the problems of risk management. Computer technology has become more accessible and affordable to a great number of people and this certainly makes it easier to trade currency online and now it can be done safely from the comfort of your own home. Many people can now enjoy Forex day trading with automation as an addition that is highly desirable as an investment vehicle. Trading currency will keep on advancing and the automation and the synchronization in real time will give traders less anxiety as they trade currency online.
Your Rules for Forex Trading
There are two types of traders trading currency online in the Forex market. The first type of trader tends to approach the market in a very informal manner and will generally ‘wing it’ as they open positions or close positions. These are people who go with their gut instincts into the Forex market and have no real plan as to what they want to do. This is not an advisable course of action for even the most experienced traders. More often than not, you will see them fall into trouble as they lose control of their trading. This is not to say that these traders will not make money-they certainly will. It is just that the chances of things going wrong are higher.
As in all other areas in life, the Forex trader who has a roadmap and keeps to it will succeed in reaching his goals. Even if you have a map a set of instructions may help to keep you on course. Rules are useful to show us when to enter the market, when to get out or not take part at all. Draw up a set of rules and then you will be able to enjoy trading currency online as well as enjoying the success you achieve.
The Forex market does not have a set of rules and thus you will need to create your own. The set of rules that you draw up for yourself should include your trading strategy and the accompanying set of instructions in the form of orders that you want done. The rules that you draw up will help to regulate the way in which you will open positions, hold them or how you will close positions.
One of the rules that will ensure that you minimize your losses is to have a stop loss order in place before opening a position. In addition you can specify as to how and when you want to enter the market. This will not be done on just a whim and will be calculated with the aid of analyzing the market and making decisions as to when to enter and exit the market.
Another way to be successful in the trade of real currency is to protect your position whenever you find yourself in a profitable trade. Here you should give instructions to move you stop whenever you’re a pre-determined level is reached in your profits. The important thing to remember is to keep to the rules and not to trade merely with instincts but with your head.
Analyzing Forex Market Movements
The Forex market works in the same manner as any other market-it is entirely driven by supply and demand. All those who trade real currency are familiar with the general trend where a currency in demand will fetch a higher price and a currency in excess will show a falling price. It all seems straightforward and simple in theory although the truth is far from this. Predicting movements in the Forex market is an extremely complex task as anyone trading currency will soon learn.
Trading Forex is done with the aid of different methods that try to predict market changes and the future of a currency. The two main methods in use today are the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis of the Forex market.
The Use of Fundamental Analysis
This is the predictive tool that was used through the ages to determine the movements in the Forex market by currency traders. After the mid 1980s this was replaced by other methods of which technical analysis is in the forefront today as the more popular method of understanding the Forex market.
The fundamental analysis takes into account the political climate of the country, its economic stability, financial reports and other news in order to predict the movement of that country’s currency. There is a huge amount of information to sift through and copious amounts of data that have to be read before making a trading decision using this method alone. The expertise that is needed here is to find out what is relevant and what is not. The basic principle of the fundamental analysis is that any deficit or a surplus in the country’s balance of payment causes the currency value to fall or rise.
The Use of Technical Analysis
In the use of technical analysis Forex traders rely on the historical data of a currency’s past performance in order to try and predict its movements in the market. It is believed that there are patterns which can be seen emerging in the market and that these patterns all take the same route as before. Only the movement in the prices is taken into account and not what affects the price change.
Charts are extensively used in technical analysis to aid the Forex trader. The graphical representations shows how the currency has behaved with regard to the price changes over time and can be useful in finding out trends of the movements. There are many types of charts used in trading currency online such as moving averages, candlestick charts, Bollinger bands, oscillators and Fibonacci retracement levels.
Leverage and Interest on Forex Trades
In Forex trading the concept of using leverage is done most effectively allowing traders to borrow in excess of 1000 times their capital in order to make a trade. These types of additional funding works just like a loan and are governed by the same rules. You will be required to pay interest on the loan.
Trading real currency involves both buying and selling of currency. Therefore, in the same way that interest payments have to be paid on the money borrowed to fund the transactions the money earned through the transaction will accrue interest in your favor enabling you to set off the interest payments due. It is important to learn about the interest rates and how they impact trading currency online.
Interest rates are set out by the central bank of a country in order to accommodate that country’s monetary policies. This is the way that interest rates increase or lower the currency’s cost. If the interest rates are low the currency will be more affordable and if the interest rates are high the currency will end up being more expensive.
The government of a country with rapidly rising costs in the fields of goods and services has to combat with inflation. Invariably, the government will be forced to raise the interest rates and this is bound to make the country’s currency more expensive. Due to this, both demand and consumption may fall and when this happens inflation will automatically come down.
The Forex market is affected by the interest rate both when borrowing and earning. For example, let us consider a trader who is involved in currency trading and purchases GBP/USD. Here we can see that he borrows US dollars paying interest on it and then buys UK pounds earning an interest on it.
The trader is able to earn on his holding if the interest rate that is being paid out for the UK pound is higher than the interest rate that is charged for the US dollars. This might not amount to much as generally the interest rate difference between the currencies is small. The net gain that this brings in is small due to the fact that setting of interest rates is done taking into account the annual rate. Many trading positions in trading currency online are only held for a short time and thus the interest rates of the two currencies and the difference thereof tend to be rather insignificant.
The Advantage of Stop Loss Orders
A stop loss order is the most important order out of the numerous orders that are found in the Forex market. But many people do not seem to understand the way in which it can be used and tend to ignore it altogether. It is used to limit the losses and keep it within a manageable range if the market moves against you.
The reason that most people ignore stop loss orders is basically due to being emotional. This is not a good way to trade real currency as the Forex market is after all a technical market. Hope lies eternal in the human breast they say and this is amply demonstrated by people who, despite what they can see, think that the trend would reverse in their favor. And they do not want a stop loss order putting a stop to their trading currency online before the market has had an opportunity to revert. Of course, there are the rare moments when this hunch will pay up, but more often than not the outcome is liable to be a heavy loss.
Most traders who engage in trading currency online believe that they can hang on till the downturn of a currency turns and hopes that they can recoup what they lost or even make a profit. Being emotionally driven can be detrimental to any type of trading and should not be allowed to take hold of you. In the end, when a trader admits to himself that the market has actually no hope of getting back, the losses incurred may be quite heavy. So, it is best to be sensible and use a stop loss order to minimize the losses that you will suffer and avert disaster.
Making a trade that brings in a loss is a fact of trading currency online and often happens even to the best and most experienced traders every now and then. Therefore, it is important to understand the true nature of trading currency and always protect yourself against heavy losses which will effectively wipe out you trading in the Forex market.
When a stop loss order is given it will indicate the limit that you are prepared to go to in the way of losses incurred in a certain trade. A continued downtrend can never hurt your trading ability if a stop loss order is in place and minimizes the loss at a certain manageable level.
